COVERAGE DOMAIN

Semiconductors

Fab utilization, substrate lead times, tool orders, and advanced packaging supply chain signals.

CURRENT HIGH-CONVICTION

Taiwan ABF Substrate Lead Time Extension

4.5σ • +21d lead

Tooling orders and substrate lead times from dominant Asian suppliers extended from 12-14 weeks to 19+ weeks in the last 11 days.

LATEST SIGNAL

Advanced packaging capacity utilization in Taiwan and Korea showing early signs of inventory restock cycle.

3.9σ • +30d lead • 94% confidence

DOMAIN STATS

Active signals 8

Avg lead time 22.4d

Hit rate (12mo) 92%